Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Bulls Last Stand

My system declined weakly to +800 putting the sell signal on but that's secondary right now to the possible bullish failure on the $HGX today. I'll admit I was surprised it couldn't hold its gains and a follow-through tomorrow to the downside after the new home sales number will have implications beyond the $HGX and will likely mean a significant correction in the major indices. In this bearish scenario, the best case scenario is a much longer consolidation whereas the worst case scenario would be new lows which would indicate to me that we are in a Depression and if that happens I'll probably sell this computer and head for the nearest bunker, haha. Anyways, on a break of 81, I'll be using my bearish allocation cash and increasing my exposure after each break of a dollar level (80,79, etc.) down to 77 with a move to 70-72 as my target. For the bulls, tomorrow is their last chance after today's rejection and today's high would have to be broken. The only way I see that happening is if there is a gap up and then a follow-through to the upside after the new home sales numbers come out at 10am and although possible, it seems like a much lower probability after today's action. It may seem like I'm schizophrenic right now with my bullish and then bearish tones but I want to stress that the market is at an important decision point right now and the decision should be made before the week is up which will show us which way the real trend is. The market is doing a great job of drawing out the drama...

2 Comments:

Blogger tamworth said...

Thanks, Jason.

10:29 PM  
Blogger jason said...

No problem. I bought a significant amount of XHB July puts when it was trading above $12 this morning along with some others and am now at a market neutral position. Since these bearish bets are working and support levels are being broken across the board, it would have to take the reversal of all reversals by the end of the day to stop the slide. Right now, I'm very bearish unless $HGX gets back above 88. Will be back tonight.

7:35 AM  

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