Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Buy The Leak...Uh...Rumor

My system barely moved higher to just under +1375 and the buy signal is still on. Now that the market has officially been buying the rumor this week, we can expect a quick sharp few days down but it's tough to tell whether that will come before or after a few more days of rally. The $HGX had a volatile day but bounced quite a bit from the low and we'll see whether or not it positions itself tomorrow in front of that 100 barrier for the big day on Friday. Speaking of that big day, I can't imagine that it will be that exciting anymore as the ridiculous amount of leaks about the stress test coupled with a belief in a better than expected jobs number has baked much of the gains into the price. Bottomline, a break of 100 will eventually lead to a correction back under 100 so unless you're a day trader or at the other extreme, someone who is basically accumulating stock for further gains in the 2nd and 3rd Quarter (like myself), there is no reason to get involved until that 3 day (at least) correction surfaces. Tomorrow morning, the ECB comes out with their interest rate decision which should make for an interesting day for the Euro/Dollar pair as well as the Dollar in general which sits at a precarious technical position in the short-term.

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