Jobs Eve
My system flatlined today and the neutral signal is on. This often happens for some reason the day before a jobs report. Well, today seemed obvious to me as seen in my post from yesterday and probably to everyone else as well. I had buy limits being hit left and right. For the $HGX, I really like the 80-85 level as a place to get more aggressive on the buy side. It was a little surprising that the $HGX broke a short term low as I wasn't expecting that to happen for another few weeks. For those that have made money, it might not be a bad idea to buy some longer term puts for the just-in-case-we're-all-wrong-about-inflation-scenario. I will post this weekend...
posted by jason at 8:24 PM
3 Comments:
Jason, I'm curioius as to why you use $HGX as a proxy if that's what you are doing? Are you using it as a proxy for the $SPX, for example..and if so, you must not be looking for much of a pullback at all before the next leg up in the market..maybe only 850 spx or so..as it seems that would bring about 80-85 on HGX ....
I would think with these extreme readings we're seeing across a wide variety of indicators, including yours, that we would retreat to something like 800 spx at least...
What say you? ;)
tamworth I would have to agree the rally lasted a little longer than I thought but I see a top around 950 and then a pullback to around 700 before a rally to new highs.not sure why he is using HGX after all it has a clear trendline break.I would use GS as a proxy.
tamworth, I am using the $HGX for a few reasons. First, I frankly have been right so far since the bottom on it and that means I am in sync with this index which is why I feel more confident about its direction and support/resistance levels. Second, the $HGX has been going down since 2005 which is far longer than the overall market. If I know anything, it's that there will always be a homebuilding industry and there will always be corporate survivors of a 3.5 year downturn. Now we know for the most part who those survivors are. I really don't have a good grasp on the $SPX right now which is why I haven't really been discussing it that much since the bottom. Over the last week especially it looks like the $HGX continued to correct while the $SPX kept moving higher and that has to be due to the huge gains in the financials. Because I don't have a good idea where the financials are going, I feel like I'm not really going to be able to call the $SPX that accurately. That said, although the $HGX and $SPX won't trade in lockstep, there should be a general correlation of price gains in both indices. So, I'm not sure where the $SPX would be with 80-85 on the $HGX.
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