Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Tuesday Update

My system moved higher to +1350 keeping the buy signal on. The bulls should be nervous and scared because of the level we are at in my system. However, there is the pull of the 377 day SMA. After every bear market, a new bull market will at the very least get above that average. Right now, it's at 112 on the $HGX and declining at a rate of about 3-4 per month. What's more, the 8 day EMA has always crossed above that average in every new cyclical bull market. Looking at the major indices like $SPX, $INDU, etc., the 377 day SMA is declining at a faster rate and is very far from the 8 day EMA. Sometime over the course of this cyclical bull, I would expect to see these averages finally meet up. Back to the $HGX and it was soundly defeated on its test of 100 today getting to 99 and change before the sellers came in. Once 100 is broken, I would fully expect a sharp test back underneath for a few days.

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