Monday Update

My system has continued to flatline at +1425 for the last three trading days. We have been in a very tight channel of aroud 100 basis points in my system since January 4th. This is coupled with a move into this resistance zone of 1490-1510. And we have the Fed meeting this week as well. It's hard to say what the short-term scenario is but I'm biased towards a break of 1510 before a pullback but that is a pure guess. However, the long term scenarios have cleared up and the bulls are going to be happy. The 666 low is the nominal bottom of the secular bear market. If I turn out to be wrong about this nominal low then I vow to end this blog. That is how certain I am about this. 1125-1250 is a major support zone and I still think we will get into that zone or relatively near there in a cyclical bear market that will occur sometime within the next 4 years. The absolute worst case scenario is back to 900-1000 but I give this less than a 1% chance of occurring. Basically, the last leg of this secular bear market that started nearly 13 years ago is a wide consolidation phase before the eventual breakout that starts the next secular bull market. If the market breaks 1575 now or sometime this year, I do not believe that this will be the real secular bull breakout as there is still consolidating in the market's future for the next few years. Turning to Apple, as mentioned before it has hit its peak for many, many years. The close below $440 has confirmed that it will eventually go lower although a short-term sharp bounce is due. If that bounce occurs, I will be looking to sell my calls at breakeven or a small profit if the bounce is sharp enough. Although Apple the company will probably remain a player in the tech landscape for years to come, Apple the stock will go nowhere. This is comparable to Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco going nowhere after their stocks peaked in 2000 although their large revenue generating businesses remain important to this day. Bubbles are usually fairly easy to spot which is contrary to what Greenspan, Bernanke, etc. would have you believe.